Assistant Research Professor · University of Notre Dame · Environmental Change Initiative

Moh Aboelnour

I build watershed models that help communities decide what to do about floods, water quality and water availability in a changing climate.

Explore my research Publications
  • Hydrologic modeling
  • Flood risk
  • Machine learning
  • Optimization
  • Remote sensing
  • Great Lakes
MA Portrait of Moh Aboelnour

About

Rigorous science, built for real decisions.

I am a hydrologist who studies how water behaves in landscapes shaped by people, and what communities can do when floods, pollution or scarcity threaten them. My research brings together process-based hydrologic modeling, geospatial analysis, climate information, machine learning and optimization.

The goal is science that is credible and useful: tools that communities, watershed organizations, engineers and conservation professionals can actually use to compare options under uncertainty.

I hold a Ph.D. in Agricultural and Biological Engineering from Purdue University, an M.E. in Geo-detection and Information Technology from China University of Geosciences, Beijing, and a B.S. in Geosciences from Suez Canal University, Egypt.

Research

Four connected threads

A progression from understanding hydrologic processes, to assessing risk, to evaluating interventions and helping communities compare choices under uncertainty.

Map of the St. Joseph River Basin in the Great Lakes region, showing the Paw Paw and Niles sub-basins, rivers, meteorological stations and stream gauges
St. Joseph River Basin (SJRB)

Watershed response to climate & management

SWAT models of the St. Joseph River Basin quantify how land-use change, future climate and winter cover crops shift river flow, sediment, nitrate and phosphorus delivery to Lake Michigan.

SWATGroundwater–surface waterCover crops
Screenshot of the Global Urban Climate Assessment interactive map of pilot cities
Global Urban Climate Assessment (GUCA) interactive tool

Global urban climate assessment

Flood-exposure and water-security indicators for cities in very different climatic and socioeconomic settings, built from ERA5-Land reanalysis and Google Earth Engine as part of a public decision-support tool for equitable climate-resilience planning.

ERA5-LandGoogle Earth EngineWater security
Chord diagrams showing how flood-risk classes shift from current conditions to the far-future RCP 4.5-SSP2 and RCP 8.5-SSP5 scenarios, for three flood-risk indicators
Indianapolis: how flood-risk classes shift under future scenarios

Probabilistic flood modeling

Rather than a single deterministic forecast, this work asks how flood risk may shift across a city and which communities bear it. It brings together climate projections, urban development, exposure and social vulnerability. Applied to Indianapolis, and to Texas.

Probabilistic riskEquityClimate projections

Accelerated decision support In development

Automated workflows linking process-based models with machine-learning emulators, large scenario ensembles, uncertainty analysis and multi-objective optimization, so tradeoffs can be explored in minutes, not months.

ML emulatorsOptimizationCLEAR Watersheds
Early prototype of a web tool for browsing active USGS streamflow gauges and loading a watershed boundary
Early prototype: streamflow-gauge explorer for CLEAR Watersheds

Where this is heading

  • From framework to field: taking CLEAR Watersheds into real demonstrations in the St. Joseph River Basin and the Elkhart River watershed, and checking that faster models stay faithful to the hydrology.
  • Practices in combination: asking which mixes of conservation, storage, drainage and stormwater measures hold up across rural, urban and basin scales, rather than judging each one alone.
  • Sorting out uncertainty: separating what better data can reduce from what planners must design around, for floods, water quality and the communities most exposed.

Hands-on

Try a storm

Change the storm and the landscape to see how much rain runs off and how high the river peaks. This is a simplified rainfall–runoff model for illustration; my research uses calibrated, process-based models.

Start from

The rest is forest and wetland: 30%

Runoff0.87 in
Peak flow5,400 cfs
RiverBelow the flood threshold

Method: SCS curve-number runoff (soil group B: urban 90, farmland 78, or 74 with cover crops, forest and wetland 58) and a triangular unit hydrograph for a 100-square-mile watershed. The dashed line is the same storm on an all-natural landscape. Numbers are illustrative.

Projects & partnerships

Where the work is applied

Active, funded projects and the partners they serve, and what my part in each is.

Active

CLEAR Watersheds

Lead for watershed modeling

I lead the watershed-modeling workstream: model development, calibration and scenario design, keeping the AI components grounded in sound hydrology as the team builds the decision-support framework.

Industry-supportedNotre Dame ECICommunity partners
Active

Elkhart River watershed · Clean Water Indiana

Model and scenario framework

Working with the Elkhart County Soil & Water Conservation District, I build the watershed model and scenario tools around local priorities and field monitoring. It doubles as a real-world testbed for CLEAR.

Elkhart County SWCDSediment & nutrientsCounty planning
Active

Community-centered optimization for rural–urban water systems

Hydrologic modeling and tradeoff analysis

I connect hydrologic simulations to multi-objective analysis so partners can weigh flood reduction, water quality, farm productivity and cost together.

Just Transformations to Sustainability InitiativeStochastic modelingMulti-objective optimization
Moh and three colleagues in safety vests at a stream crossing, with a survey rod and a newly installed sensor on the bridge
In the field: installing sensors for a stream gauge
Moh wading in a river beneath a road bridge, holding a whiteboard with the sampling site name
Sampling a river site

Publications

Peer-reviewed articles

    Full list on Google Scholar →

    Selected presentations

    Mentoring & Community

    People and community

    Graduate co-advising

    • Ahmad Al Azzam
      Ph.D., Civil & Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences · expected May 2028
    • Suharshi De Silva
      Ph.D., Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering · anticipated 2030

    Community engagement

    I work with watershed organizations, soil and water conservation districts, municipal partners and practitioners so modeled alternatives, performance measures and tool design reflect the decisions stakeholders actually face, and I bring what I learn from them back into the science.

    Toolkit

    What I work with

    Hydrologic modeling

    SWAT / SWAT+SWAT-CUPHEC-HMSHEC-RASL-THIALOADEST

    Geospatial & remote sensing

    Google Earth EngineArcGISQGISENVIERDAS

    Data & code

    PythonRML emulatorsOptimizationSASJMP

    Climate data

    ERA5-LandClimate projectionsScenario ensemblesUncertainty analysis

    Background

    Path so far

    Assistant Research ProfessorEnvironmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame
    Postdoctoral AssociateCivil & Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Notre Dame
    Research AssistantAgricultural & Biological Engineering, Purdue University
    Ph.D., Agricultural & Biological EngineeringPurdue University · urbanization, surface temperature and hydrology
    M.E., Geo-detection & Information TechnologyChina University of Geosciences, Beijing · Tibetan Plateau glacier and climate study
    B.S., GeosciencesSuez Canal University, Egypt

    Beyond research

    Outside of work

    Outside of work, I enjoy spending time with my family, traveling, running, and playing soccer.

    Moh at a half marathon, wearing a Notre Dame Engineering shirt and race bib
    Half marathon
    A soccer team in matching Notre Dame intramural champions shirts on the field at night
    Intramural champions
    Moh with friends wearing medals after a race
    Race day
    Friends holding Notre Dame futsal championship shirts on a sunny field
    Futsal
    A group of friends posing in front of the goal after an indoor soccer game
    Indoor soccer

    Contact

    Let’s talk water.

    Interested in collaboration, student opportunities, or putting these tools to work in your watershed? I’d like to hear from you.

    maboelno@nd.edu LinkedIn

    Environmental Change Initiative · University of Notre Dame